Individual risk quantification model of pressure pipeline based on fuzzy evaluation method with catastrophe progression

Abstract

The safety of pressure pipelines has become an important part of national public safety because of their special professional technology and potentially high risk. To identify the key influencing factors of individual risk of pressure pipeline more effectively and explain the interaction mechanism of each factor clearly, using the factor analysis method and catastrophe progression method, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematical model of the individual risk of the pressure pipeline was established, Meanwhile, the risk factors of the risk subject and the risk receptor were identified respectively based on the PSR model and the vulnerability model, and the acceptance criterion of the individual risk of the pressure pipeline was studied. In addition, the 185 km Jinjing pipeline of China Aviation Oil Group was selected as a case study to obtain the comprehensive evaluation results of the risk subject, object, and individual risk of Jinjing pipeline. Finally, the acceptance criteria and control measures were given. Results show that the individual risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the pressure pipeline is reasonable and applicable, and the acceptance criteria of the individual risk of the pressure pipeline are formulated. The conclusion provides a method for the government regulators to implement the risk-based supervision of the pressure pipeline.