Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Functional Dependence in Early Parkinson’s Disease

Abstract

Background: Early identification of Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients at risk for becoming functionally dependent is important for patient counseling. Several models describing the relationship between predictors and outcome have been reported, however, most of these require computer software for practical use. Objective: Here we report the development of a risk nomogram allowing an approximate graphical computation of the risk of becoming functionally dependent in early PD. Methods: We analyzed data form the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative cohort of newly diagnosed PD patients from baseline through the first 5 years of follow-up. Functional dependence was defined as a score < 80 on the Schwab & England Activities of Daily Living scale. A binary logistic model was developed to estimate the risk of functional dependence and based on the results, a nomogram for the prediction of functional dependence was drawn in order to provide an easy-to-use tool in clinical and academic settings as a part of personalized medicine approach to PD treatment. Results: At baseline, three patients and over the five-year follow-up, 85 (22%) out of 395 patients were functionally dependent as scored by the Schwab & England Activities of Daily Living rating scale. The binary logistic model showed that clinical parameters such as MDS-UPDRS I (rater part), MDS-UPDRS II, and MDS-UPDRS axial motor score were significant predictors for functional dependence within 5 years. Conclusion: We here provide an easy-to-use tool to estimate the risk of functional dependence in PD patients based on the MDS-UPDRS part I, II and axial motor score.