A risk investment evaluation method based on dynamic bayesian network and fuzzy system

Abstract

In order to enhance the risk investment evaluation algorithm precision of forestry rights mortgage of farmers, this paper provides a method of risk investment validating process of forestry rights mortgage of farmers based on dynamic Bayes network (DBN) and fuzzy system. For that have to be processed fuzzy data in time arrangement and evaluate the circumstance viably, Intuitionistic Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network (IFDBN) is assembled. Intuitionistic fuzzy thinking is implanted into DBN as a virtual node in this method. Also, another technique to change over the intuitionistic fuzzy thinking yield into likelihood that could contribution to DBN as proof is proposed. Firstly, it analyzes the risk investment of forestry rights mortgage of farmers, raises the risk evaluation system and adopts normalization and factor analysis methods to pre-process the model index; secondly, by aid of a four-layer DBN model, it puts forward the hierarchical DBN model of risk investment, having input layer, fuzzy layer, fuzzy inference layer and output layer, designs the composition and calculation mode of fuzzy function module and DBN module; Finally, it verifies the viability of the calculation through experimental examination.