Picture fuzzy prospect theory-MAIRCA method considering optimal reference point for emergency decision-making

Abstract

In the emergency decision-making process, decision-makers usually cannot give rational evaluations, and existing decision-making methods do not adequately consider the risk attitude of decision-makers either. To solve these problems, a combined method based on the prospect theory and the multi-attributive ideal-real comparative analysis (MAIRCA) method is put forward in the picture fuzzy environment. Firstly, the optimal aggregation (OA) model is proposed to obtain the ideal evaluations with the least disagreement among decision-makers. Regarding the evaluations as reference systems, the OA-based prospect theory is put forward, which could calculate the prospect matrix more reasonably. Secondly, considering the prospect matrix and alternative preference, the improved MAIRCA method is proposed, which overcomes the defects of theory and has the better ranking ability. Then, the OA-based prospect theory-MAIRCA method is further put forward to effectively complete the decision-making process with risk attitudes. Finally, an illustrative example of earthquake emergency assessment and a series of comparative experiments are presented. The analyses of results show that the proposed method has great guiding significance in the field of emergency decision-making management.