A novel combined model based on VMD and IMODA for wind speed forecasting

Abstract

Wind energy, a highly popular renewable clean energy, has been increasingly valued by the international community and been leaping forward. However, the original wind speed signal characterized by intermittent fluctuations impose heavy burdens on wind speed forecasting of wind farms. This study proposed a wind speed forecasting method by complying with a model integrating the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and the Improved Multi-Objective Dragonfly Optimization Algorithm (IMODA). First, the VMD was adopted to decompose the original wind speed signal, as an attempt to obtain multiple sub-sequences (IMFs) exhibiting stable frequency domain. Second, to simplify the calculation, the sample entropy (SE) was adopted for the sequence recombination, and the respective recombined sub-sequence of the wind speed was forecasted by using four advanced neural networks. Lastly, the IMODA algorithm was adopted to fuse the forecasting results of the neural network, and the results of the optimal wind speed were forecasted. To verify the effectiveness and adaptability of the algorithm, the wind farm data in four different regions were forecasted. As indicated from the results, this algorithm could outperform other algorithms in the comprehensive forecasting accuracy and the model calculation time, and it could be effectively applied for the wind speed forecasting in wind farms.