Factors affecting recommended childhood vaccine demand

Abstract

Reaching a high vaccination coverage level is of vital essence when preventing epidemic diseases. For mandatory vaccines, the demand can be forecasted using some demographics such as birth rates or populations between certain ages. However, it has been difficult to forecast non-mandatory vaccine demands because of vaccine hesitation, alongside other factors such as social norms, literacy rate, or healthcare infrastructure. Consequently, the purpose of this study is to explore the predominant factors that affect the non-mandatory vaccine demand, focusing on the recommended childhood vaccines, which are usually excluded from national immunization programs. For this study, fifty-nine factors were determined and categorized as system-oriented and human-oriented factors. After a focus group study conducted with ten experts, seven system-oriented and eight human-oriented factors were determined. To reveal the cause and effect relationship between factors, one of the multi-criteria decision-making methods called Fuzzy-DEMATEL was implemented. The results of the analysis showed that “Immunization-related beliefs”, “Media/social media contents/messaging”, and “Social, cultural, religious norms” have a strong influence on non-mandatory childhood vaccine demand. Furthermore, whereas “Availability and access to health care facilities” and “Political/ financial support to health systems” are identified as cause group factors, “Quality of vaccine and service delivery management” is considered an effect group factor. Lastly, a guide was generated for decision-makers to help their forecasting process of non-mandatory vaccine demands to avoid vaccine waste or shortage.