Perception of insecurity in municipalities in Mexico: A small area estimation approach

Abstract

In this paper, the percentage of the population aged 18 years and over with perception of insecurity during March and April 2021 is estimated for each municipality in Mexico using small area estimation techniques. Two methods are considered: the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) and the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP), both based on the Fay-Herriot area-level model. The National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety 2021 (ENVIPE 2021, for its acronym in Spanish) is the base survey from which the variable object of estimation is obtained; the auxiliary variables that allow to establish the considered models are obtained from other information sources, such as the population and housing census and administrative records. The results are adjusted to satisfy the benchmarking property and are contrasted with direct estimates given by the same survey, ENVIPE 2021, to compare their reliability level.