Predictors of Mortality in Individuals with Dementia in the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center

Abstract

Background: Dementia is one of the top causes of death worldwide, but individuals with dementia and their caregivers report that knowing what to expect, including regarding approaching end of life, is an unmet need. Objective: To identify predictors of death in individuals with Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia, Lewy body dementia (LBD), vascular dementia, and frontotemporal dementia. Methods: The study used data from National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center participants with dementia and an etiologic diagnosis of AD, Lewy body disease, frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD, with or without motor neuron disease), or vascular dementia. Analyses included median survival across dementia types and predictors of death at 5 years based on baseline demographics and clinical measure performance. Five-year survival probability tables were stratified by predictor values. Results: Individuals with AD had the longest survival (median 6 years), followed by FTLD (5 years), and vascular dementia and LBD (each 4 years). The strongest predictors of death for the full cohort were dementia type (higher risk with non-AD dementias), sex (higher risk with male sex), and race and ethnicity (higher risk with white and non-Hispanic participants). Age was associated with higher mortality risk across the non-Alzheimer dementias; other significant associations included worse cognitive status (FTLD, LBD) and more depression (LBD). Conclusion: Results can help clinicians counsel individuals with dementia and families regarding average dementia trajectories; findings regarding individual risk factors can aid individualizing expectations. Further research is needed to investigate drivers of mortality in the non-AD dementias to improve counseling and help identify potentially modifiable factors.