Affiliation:
1. Department of Mathematics, Vellore Institute of Technology (VIT), Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India
2. Department of Mathematics, LMNO, Universite de caen-Normandie, Caen, France
Abstract
When trend and seasonality are detected, the Holt-Winters multiplicative approach is one of the most commonly used methods for forecasting time series data. Choosing the proper initial values for level, trend, and seasonality plays a vital role in this method. In this paper, a new and efficient procedure to choose the initial values for the Holt-Winters multiplicative method is developed. A total of 12 types of agricultural satellite backscatter values are used for analysis, estimated, and compared with the existing Hansun and Holt-Winters methods and the proposed initial setting method with the best smoothing constants. According to the analysis of the mean absolute percentage error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, Theil-U statistics, and root mean squared error, the proposed approaches outperformed the existing methods in this experiment.
Subject
Applied Mathematics,Modeling and Simulation,Statistics and Probability
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