Uncertainty of the Future as a Fundamental Problem of the Long-Term Development of Transport

Abstract

The article is devoted to consideration of the problem of long-term development of transport under the conditions of uncertainty, which is a fundamental feature of the conditions of human activity. The objectives are to reveal the specifics of the «path dependence» in the field of transport, to show the fundamental nature of the problem of uncertainty of human activity and its special significance for development of transport, to propose a methodological basis for mitigating the problem of uncertainty in the long-term development of transport.While achieving the objectives, it is shown using historical analysis that the development of transport systems forms a specific kind of «path dependence», having a significant long-term impact on the future of not only transport itself, but also on other sectors of the economy, as well as on the development of demographic and other social processes.The location of the population, the development of production capacities, the choice of places of recreation are adapted to the existing transportation network. The decisions regarding location of transport infrastructure, the configuration of transport networks, the use of various technical solutions significantly influence the future of the transport itself.In this regard, it is desirable to reduce the uncertainty of the future of the transport. Uncertainty does not mean absolute unawareness. Although the future cannot be predicted accurately, it can be predicted with a certain probability. It is necessary, while fully understanding the impossibility of achieving complete certainty in predicting the future, to assess, at least at a qualitative level, the probability of these forecasts, strive to increase it and to develop transport systems considering the greater or lesser likelihood of certain forecasts.Hence, it is recommended to use both the logical-analytical method as the basis for forecasting longterm development to identify and consider long-term trends in the development of transport, and the foresight and predictive analytics to reveal newly emerging trends. An important condition of success is the ability to develop and implement various alternative solutions in response to emerging challenges, requiring development of a competitive and innovative environment both in the field of transport and in related areas of economic activity.