Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios for Development of Feeder Network of the Arctic Transport System Based on Achievement of Target Indicators

Abstract

The relevance of the article is determined by the increasing role of the Arctic transport system in the economy of the Russian Federation: involvement of territories of the Arctic zone of the country in economic activities, an increase in their social and economic potential. The development of the northern territories is directly related to existing and future capabilities of the Arctic transport system, for successful functioning of which it is necessary to provide it with feeder transport network.The objective of the work is to determine the scenarios according to which development of these feeder roads can be carried out. When writing the article, the methods of systemic, comparative, and statistical analysis were particularly used.The paper clarifies the definition of the Arctic transport system. It is noted that scenarios for development of feeder routes to it should be linked to its general development, as well as to the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The European and Ural Arctic subregion is highlighted, where development of feeder routes is most important in connection with the growth of economic activity on Yamal Peninsula. With reference to the works of domestic and foreign authors, strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation, it is assumed that according to the degree of achievement of target indicators of traffic volumes along the Northern Sea Route, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for formation of feeder network can be activated. The final implementation of one of those scenarios is determined by political, natural, and other risks.When developing scenarios for formation of transport feeder network to the Arctic transport system, the emergence of new modes of transport should be considered. New modes of transport can provide linking of remote objects to the trunk transport networks or eliminate the gaps emerging in them.The use of new modes of transport in the Russian Arctic should be carried out only after testing at specialized test sites, where their safety for transportation of passengers and goods, as well as for the environment, will be determined.The work was carried out within the framework of the comprehensive program of fundamental scientific research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2018–2020 and is associated with the need to increase the capacity of the main ports of the European and Ural Arctic and the volume of traffic along the Northern Sea Route.