Modelling of Air Passenger Transportation in Russia

Abstract

The use of economic and mathematical methods of forecasting the results of activities of civil aviation organisations, and in particular assessment of the volume of air passenger traffic is quite relevant due to the importance of operational planning of air transport processes, development of strategic directions, technological and technical renewal of air enterprises.The objective of the study is to plan the traffic flow of air passengers using a regression model, considering the results of multifactorial selection of determinants, particularly distinguishing fundamental macro indicators are distinguished, as well as significant indicators of the aviation market.The study of passenger air transportation was carried out using methods of system analysis, methods of mathematical statistics and econometrics. Modelling of the process of passenger transportation has identified the main determinants that positively or negatively affect the dynamics of air passenger traffic. The multiple regression of the study of the processes of connectivity and synchronicity of changes in development of passenger traffic and selected macro indicators in a generalised form is the sum of vectors of influencing variables adjusted for the calculated coefficients.Six-, four- and three-factor regression models were developed. The three-factor model turned to be more reliable with values most close to actual data. Nevertheless, while applying regression model for forecasting air traffic it is necessary to consider not only theoretical aspects, data of official forecasts of macro indicators but expert opinions as well.