Política de Dividendos e Períodos de Recessão: Evidências no Mercado de Capitais Brasileiro

Abstract

Objective: To observe the dividend distribution behavior of Brazilian stock market [B]³ listed companies, comparing periods of expansion and recession in the Brazilian economy.Method: Two panel data models were carried out, with the payout index and the dividend yield index as dependent variables and a dummy classified as 1 for years of economic recession and 0 for years of economic rise as an independent variable. In addition, the financial leverage, size and earnings per share control variables were added to the model.Originality/Relevance: The study addressed the distribution of dividends according to the cycle of the Brazilian economy, which makes the research original, since no similar studies were found.Results: Regardless of the proxy used for dividend distribution, companies increase dividend distribution in periods of recession, when there is greater market uncertainty. Regarding the control variables, for the model estimated using the proxy payout index, all variables were significant, while for the model that has the proxy dividend yield as a dependent variable, earnings per share were not significant.Theoretical/Methodological contributions: Identification of the economic aspect in the dividend policy of Brazilian companies and in the creation of value for shareholders in periods of economic recession.