The future landscape of cancer incidence and mortality until 2036 in the Russian Federation.

Abstract

e22518 Background: Understanding the future of the burden of cancer is important to plan for future research funding, allocations of resources and other efforts. In 2019, the most incident solid tumors in Russia were colorectal, breast, lung, prostate, and gastric cancers; most deaths were lung, colorectal, gastric, breast, and pancreas cancers. We project cancer incidences and death to the year 2036 utilizing population growth estimates and observed current rates and trends in Russia. Methods: Average annual percent change (AAPC) adjusted estimations of cancer incidences and death to 2036 were calculated for the 10 most incident and deadly cancers for male and female individuals. We combined the most recent sex and cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence rates from the Herzen Russian Cancer Statistics (official Russian cancer statistics) and GLOBOCAN database with existing Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) demographic population growth projections by sex to calculate estimated incidences and death to 2036. Calculations assume that the annual percent change in the incidence and death rates observed will remain constant through 2036. Results: We project that by 2036 the incidence will increase by 19.5% and the most incident cancers in Russia will be different than the current rankings. Excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, breast is projected to be the most incident cancer with 99,700 diagnoses (currently second most incident; 73,918 diagnoses in 2019), colorectal is projected to be second with 95,200 diagnoses (currently first, 77,062 diagnoses in 2019). Lung (60,113 diagnoses in 2019) and prostate (45,763 diagnosis in 2019) will drop from fourth and third place to third and fourth place with 85,400 and 53,100 diagnoses in 2036 respectively. Despite the increase in incidence, cancer deaths will decline by 18% by 2036. Lung and colorectal cancer are projected to continue to be the top 2 leading causes of cancer related death with 35,800 deaths in 2036 due to lung cancer and 32,100 deaths due to colorectal cancer. Pancreas cancer is projected to surpass breast and gastric cancer to become the 3rd leading cause of cancer related deaths in 2036 (21,800 deaths in 2036). Breast cancer is projected to move from the fourth leading cause of cancer related deaths to fifth and gastric cancer will no longer be one of the top 5 causes of cancer deaths. Conclusions: We present projections on cancer incidence and deaths to 2036 in Russia. We show a shift in the rankings of the top 5 most common cancers and most markedly we show that pancreas cancer will be the third leading (currently fifth) cause of cancer related deaths by 2036. These projections can guide future research focus and planning.