Prediction of Late Distant Recurrence After 5 Years of Endocrine Treatment: A Combined Analysis of Patients From the Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group 8 and Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination Randomized Trials Using the PAM50 Risk of Recurrence Score

Abstract

Purpose We have previously shown that the PAM50-based risk of recurrence (ROR) score is significantly correlated with distant recurrence in both the translational research cohort within the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial (TransATAC) and Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group 8 (ABCSG 8) randomized trials. Here, we focus on the ROR score for predicting distant recurrence after 5 years of follow-up in a combined analysis of these two randomized trials. Methods Long-term follow-up data and tissue samples were obtained from 2,137 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor–positive early-stage breast cancer from the ABCSG 8 and TransATAC trials. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to determine the prognostic value of ROR for distant recurrence beyond 5 years in the combined data set. Results A total of 2,137 women who did not have a recurrence 5 years after diagnosis were included in the combined analyses. The Clinical Treatment Score (CTS) was the strongest prognostic factor 5 years after diagnosis (univariable: likelihood ratio [LR] χ2 = 94.12, bivariable: LR χ2 = 61.43). The ROR score was significantly prognostic by itself in years 5 to 10. In the node-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative subgroup, more prognostic value for late distant recurrence was added by the ROR score compared with the CTS. Conclusion The ROR score added clinically meaningful prognostic information to the CTS in all patients and all subgroups in the late follow-up period. These results suggest that the ROR score may be helpful for separating patients into risk groups who could be spared or potentially benefit from extended hormonal therapy beyond 5 years of treatment.