Prognostic Impact of the Combination of Recurrence Score and Quantitative Estrogen Receptor Expression (ESR1) on Predicting Late Distant Recurrence Risk in Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer After 5 Years of Tamoxifen: Results From NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 and B-14

Abstract

Purpose We determined the utility of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score (RS) in predicting late (> 5 years) distant recurrence (LDR) in stage I and II breast cancer within high and low-ESR1–expressing groups. Patients and Methods RS was assessed in chemotherapy/tamoxifen-treated, estrogen receptor (ER) –positive, node-positive National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28 patients and tamoxifen-treated, ER-positive, node-negative B-14 patients. The association of the RS with risk of distant recurrence (DR) 0 to 5 years and those at risk > 5 years was assessed. An ESR1 expression cut point was optimized in B-28 and tested in B-14. Results Median follow-up was 11.2 years for B-28 and 13.9 years for B-14. Of 1,065 B-28 patients, 36% had low (< 18), 34% intermediate (18 to 30), and 30% high (≥ 31) RS. Of 668 B-14 patients, 51% had low, 22% intermediate, and 27% high RS. Median ESR1 expression by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction was: B-28, 9.7 normalized expression cycle threshold units (CT) and B-14, 10.7 CT. In B-28, RS was associated with DR 0 to 5 years (log-rank P < .001) and > 5 to 10 years (log-rank P = .02) regardless of ESR1 expression. An ESR1 expression cut point of 9.1 CT was identified in B-28. It was validated in B-14 patients for whom the RS was associated with DR in years 5 to 15: 6.8% (95% CI, 4.4% to 10.6%) versus 11.2% (95% CI, 6.2% to 19.9%) versus 16.4% (95% CI, 10.2% to 25.7%) for RS < 18, RS 18 to 30, and RS ≥ 31, respectively (log-rank P = .01). Conclusion For LDR, RS is strongly prognostic in patients with higher quantitative ESR1. Risk of LDR is relatively low for patients with low RS. These results suggest the value of extended tamoxifen therapy merits evaluation in patients with intermediate and high RS with higher ESR1 expression at initial diagnosis.