Analytical decision model for the cost-effective management of solitary pulmonary nodules.

Abstract

PURPOSE AND METHODS Multiple strategies are currently being used to manage patients who present with indeterminate solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN). We have used decision-analysis models to assess the cost-effectiveness of various strategies for the diagnosis and management of SPN. Four decision strategies were compared: a wait and watch strategy, a surgery strategy, a computed tomography (CT)-based strategy, and a CT-plus-positron emission tomography (PET) strategy. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare all strategies to the wait and watch strategy. RESULTS A CT-plus-PET strategy was the most cost-effective over a large pretest likelihood (probability of having a malignant nodule), with a range of 0.12 to 0.69. Furthermore, within this likelihood range, the potential cost savings of using the CT-plus-PET strategy over the CT strategy ranged from $91 to $2,200 per patient. This translates to a yearly national savings of approximately $62.7 million. CONCLUSION Decision-analysis modeling indicates the potential cost-effectiveness of [18F]2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG)-PET in the management of SPN. Furthermore, the decision trees developed can be used to model various features of the management of SPN, including modeling the cost-effectiveness of other newly emerging technologies.