Evaluating the Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Black/White Breast Cancer Mortality Disparities: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis

Abstract

PURPOSE Medicaid expansion was designed to increase access to health care. Evidence is mixed, but theory and empirical data suggest that lower cost of care through greater access to insurance increases health care utilization and possibly improves the health of poor and sick populations. However, this major health policy has yet to be thoroughly investigated for its effect on health disparities. The current study is motivated by one of today’s most stark inequalities: the disparity in breast cancer mortality rates between Black and White women. METHODS This analysis used a difference-in-difference fixed effects regression model to evaluate the impact of Medicaid expansion on the disparity between Black and White breast cancer mortality rates. State-level breast cancer mortality data were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Each state’s Medicaid expansion status was provided by a Kaiser Family Foundation white paper. Two tests were conducted, one compared all expanding states with all nonexpanding states, and the second compared all expanding states with nonexpanding states that voted to expand—but did not by 2014. The difference-in-difference regression models considered the year 2014 a washout period and compared 2012 and 2013 (pretreatment) with 2015 and 2016 (posttreatment). RESULTS Medicaid expansion did not lower the disparity in breast cancer mortality. In contrast to expectations, the Black/White mortality ratio increased in states expanding Medicaid for all Medicaid-eligible age groups, with significant effects in younger age groups ( P = .01 to .15). CONCLUSION These results suggest that states cannot solely rely on access to insurance to alleviate disparities in cancer or other chronic conditions. More exploration of the impacts of low-quality health systems is warranted.