Dynamic Risk Prediction of 30-Day Mortality in Patients With Advanced Lung Cancer: Comparing Five Machine Learning Approaches

Abstract

PURPOSE Administering systemic anticancer treatment (SACT) to patients near death can negatively affect their health-related quality of life. Late SACT administrations should be avoided in these cases. Machine learning techniques could be used to build decision support tools leveraging registry data for clinicians to limit late SACT administration. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients with advanced lung cancer who were treated at the Department of Oncology, Aalborg University Hospital and died between 2010 and 2019 were included (N = 2,368). Diagnoses, treatments, biochemical data, and histopathologic results were used to train predictive models of 30-day mortality using logistic regression with elastic net penalty, random forest, gradient tree boosting, multilayer perceptron, and long short-term memory network. The importance of the variables and the clinical utility of the models were evaluated. RESULTS The random forest and gradient tree boosting models outperformed other models, whereas the artificial neural network–based models underperformed. Adding summary variables had a modest effect on performance with an increase in average precision from 0.500 to 0.505 and from 0.498 to 0.509 for the gradient tree boosting and random forest models, respectively. Biochemical results alone contained most of the information with a limited degradation of the performances when fitting models with only these variables. The utility analysis showed that by applying a simple threshold to the predicted risk of 30-day mortality, 40% of late SACT administrations could have been prevented at the cost of 2% of patients stopping their treatment 90 days before death. CONCLUSION This study demonstrates the potential of a decision support tool to limit late SACT administration in patients with cancer. Further work is warranted to refine the model, build an easy-to-use prototype, and conduct a prospective validation study.