Methods and intelligent systems of analysis and synthesis new technical solution

Abstract

This monograph describes the basic methods and intelligent digital technologies of conceptual design, which allow to solve the most important problems of structural synthesis, decision-making and forecasting in the conditions of uncertainty in the early stages of design of technical objects. Conditions of uncertainty mean the presence of incomplete, inaccurate, non-quantitative, unreliable, fuzzy information involved in solving these problems. With the development of Informatization tools, the volume of data that can be used for the synthesis, analysis, forecasting and planning of solutions significantly increases. This, in turn, requires the development of tools for presenting and processing heterogeneous information, as well as effective methods for extracting the necessary information from powerful information flows. Every year, the time allocated for decision-making decreases, and the complexity of procedures increases due to the increase in the number of participants in these processes, with an increase in the amount of information involved, with a rapid and poorly predictable change in the conditions in which the formulation and solution of tasks, as well as the implementation of decisions. In a rapidly changing environment, traditional technologies for analyzing, synthesizing and predicting solutions are not always acceptable, mainly due to time constraints and insufficient quantity and quality of information. All this makes it necessary to obtain forecasts of possible changes in the environment of design tasks and to develop methods for assessing the consequences of decisions. The problem of planning solutions in crisis and unstable situations, which are typical for Russia in recent years, is of particular importance, because in the conditions of the transition economy, the mechanisms of self-regulation either do not work, or work extremely inefficiently, since the processes are unbalanced. Therefore, it is important to identify the types of tasks that occur in such situations and to develop approaches to their solution using information systems. Analysis of methods and computer systems used for the synthesis, prediction and decision-making leads to the conclusion that the most promising are the methods and systems based on the technology of knowledge processing.