TRANSIENT SIMULATION OF WIND ENERGY PRODUCTION FOR ELECTRIC MARKET STABILITY

Abstract

TToday, energy sustainability, which is one of the most significant concerns in the energy industry, is of utmost importance. In this context, investments and interest in renewable energy sources are growing. As a nation with vast wind energy potential, Türkiye is at the forefront of expanding investments in this sector. This study highlights the significance of wind power plants in electricity market and the relevance of wind energy forecasts, as well as the significance of ensuring the imbalance in energy supply and enhancing electricity market stability. Parallel to this, the transient system simulation (TRNSYS) model was used to determine annual energy generation of a wind power plant in Izmir with a capacity of 18 MW, and the obtained results were compared with the real-time generation data from EPİAŞ transparency platform. The model had two approaches, one based on standard data from the second generation of a typical meteorological year (Plan (1)), and the other on actual field data collected in the plant (Plan (2)). The numerical findings indicate that the annual energy generation values for Plan (1) and Plan (2) are 24,018.1 MWh and 61,699.1 MWh, respectively. Additionally, the real-time production yields a total of 60,176.2 MWh. In a meantime, Plan (1) generated a positive imbalance value of 45,726.7 MWh, whereas Plan (2) has 6,651.3 MWh over the course of one year. In contrast, the annual sum of negative imbalance values was determined to be 9,475.9 MWh for Plan (1) and 8,368.6 MWh for Plan (2). The analysis yielded annual figures of 2,379,110.4 TL and 351,318.3 TL for positive and negative imbalance penalties, respectively, for Plan (1). For Plan (2), the corresponding amounts were 310,875.9 TL and 337,186.4 TL. Consequently, the total penalty payments for Plan (1) amounted to 2,730,428.8 TL, while for Plan (2) it reached 648,062.3 TL.