Human and Environmental Bias Affecting Risk Perception in Military Radiological and Nuclear Operations

Abstract

The urban military operating environment may offer favorable conditions for combat involving asymmetric actions or 4th generation warfare which includes the chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) environment. The CBRN environment is characterized by threats and hazards capable of producing negative impacts to the operations. The detriment may be produced by intentional release of hazardous materials into the operational environment. This study deals with an environment deliberately contaminated by radioactive materials because of the activation of a radiological dispersive device (RDD). A computer simulation of the radioactive scenario was performed in order to produce useful information which in turn can be used to support decision-making. The main goal was to assess the risk of developing radio-induced solid cancer by studying the articulation between local environmental variables and a cognitive bias, the Dunning-Kruger effect. The findings highlight intuitive correlations between local atmospheric stability and cognitive bias affecting the threat level (radiation dose), the responsiveness and the perceived risk. The findings also allow us to infer that, especially in the military-operational context, the methodology proposed for the assessment of environment-human interactions may be decisive for correctly direct available resources, both human and material, reducing operational risk.