Management of Risks and Threats in the Black Sea: Future Scenarios and Romania's Involvement

Abstract

Given the plasticity of the current geopolitical environment and the increasingly visible concern of NATO and the EU related to security in the Black Sea region in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the present article adopts a multidimensional approach to assess regional risks and threats. The paper begins by providing a comprehensive overview of the current security situation, focusing on diverse challenges that include both conventional and hybrid threats. Drawing on a diverse range of academic sources, policy documents and security analyses, and employing an empirical qualitative research approach, this study examines the factors that contribute to regional instability, such as territorial disputes, military buildup and hybrid threats. An essential point of this article is Romania’s role in addressing the identified risks and threats. The analysis investigates Romania’s position as a NATO and EU member state and its contributions to regional security initiatives. In addition, it highlights the importance of inter-institutional cooperation and coordination for strengthening Romania’s resilience in the face of complex security challenges. Overall, this article provides not only a comprehensive analysis of the security landscape in the Black Sea region, but also valuable insights into the potential paths that future developments could take.