Resilience of territorial communities amid the war against Ukraine: The role of budgetary instruments

Abstract

Russia’s war against Ukraine has exacerbated challenges and risks to community development. Improving the ability to withstand the shocks of the external and internal environment, adapt to changes in the security environment, respond to threats, maintain sustainable functioning, and recover to the desired equilibrium will contribute to strengthening the resilience of communities. Budgetary instruments are crucial for ensuring the resilience of communities in such conditions. This study aims to identify the impact of budgetary instruments on ensuring the resilience of territorial communities amid the war in Ukraine (the case of Lviv oblast). The methods include a systemic and structural approach (building an information and analytical model of resilience research) and indicative and GAP analysis (identifying the impact of budgetary instruments on community resilience, in particular, local taxes, transfers, and personal income tax (PIT)). The data of 73 communities in Lviv oblast for 2021–2023 were collected. The study shows that the resilience of the territorial communities of Lviv oblast during the study period was at a moderate and above-moderate level; most were in the zones of resistance (resilience indicators ranging from 0.43-0.65) and decreasing resilience (0.42-0.20); the resilience of 8% was at a critically low level (2022–2023). The results estimate that the resilience of 90% communities in 2024 will not change significantly if military PIT is redirected from local to state budgets, except for those communities whose resilience is highly dependent on the amount of military PIT (the decrease in resilience will range from 12.5 to 4.2 percentage points).