The effects of future climate change shocks on macroeconomic aggregates via agricultural production in Tunisia: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the direct and indirect impact of future climate changes on agricultural production and macroeconomic aggregates. A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Tunisian economy has been developed, which takes into account the effects of future climate shocks from 2020 to 2050 to assess the impact of future climate change on agricultural production and macroeconomic aggregates. The model is used to simulate various scenarios. The results of the climate shock simulations clearly show that long-term citrus fruits production is showing remarkable declines in the most citrus-producing governorates following a significant drop in water level in dams and level of groundwater table. In turn, cereals are the plants most affected by the long-term reduction in rainfall. As for the olive production, it would show a decline reaching –1.263% between 2020 and 2024 in the level of its production following reduction in rainfall. From a macro-economic point of view, climate change will result in the short- and long-term in a deterioration of certain quantities, notably household consumption, entrepreneurial investment, and the unemployment rate, which decreases by –0.139% between 2031 and 2040. These results underline the need for a long-term agricultural policy to reduce or limit the economic and social consequences of climate change and support economic development.