Risk management through a Kohonen map bank business model survey: The case of Ukraine

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to identify the peculiarities of banks’ business models and assess their risks, which is especially relevant in the context of the war in Ukraine since 2014. The information base is the published statements for each month of 63 Ukrainian banks for the period from 1 January 2018 to 1 January 2024. The number of indicators is chosen in an empirical manner. Business models are investigated using the method of structural-functional groups of banks, which allows estimating large arrays of financial indicators, grouping banks with similar characteristics and drawing conclusions about the main risks. It is convenient to use neural networks, namely Kohonen’s self-organizing maps, to estimate large data sets. The largest group of banks places a significant part of assets in government securities and has an unstable resource base. The share of these banks in the system as of January 1, 2024 is 38% and total assets are 10%. The second group by number of banks is focused on corporate lending with a high share of current resources in liabilities, and includes 21% of banks, whose assets account for 31% of total assets. State-owned banks, PrivatBank and OschadBank, account for 35% of total assets. The business models of these banks are characterized by dependence on retail funds, a high share of investment operations, and high credit and currency risks. Ukraine’s banking system has significantly developed a risk-oriented approach to management, which allowed it to maintain stability in the face of a full-scale war.