Fiscal and real repercussions of the Central Bank of Iraq’s real estate initiatives by using Multiple Correspondence Analysis

Abstract

The importance of the study stems from the fact that Iraq’s economy is facing a housing crisis, especially in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, great demographic pressure due to pronounced population growth over the past two decades. The Central Bank of Iraq undertakes several initiatives represented in granting real estate loans, mainly through the Real Estate Bank at very low interest, and in the last two years, the interest has become zero. The purpose of the study is to analyze the fiscal implications of the Iraqi central bank’s real estate initiatives, as well as its real impact on the spatial dimension of the Iraqi governorates through new housing in those governorates. Using data mainly from the Central Bank of Iraq’s bulletins, the study obtained a 6-year sample of study variables for 15 Iraqi governorates. Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was used to test such repercussions. One of the study’s findings is that the greatest impact of the Iraqi central bank’s real estate initiative was the fiscal and real repercussions for the year 2021, and the highest relative impact was in Baghdad governorate, with fiscal and real returns distinct from the rest of the governorates. One of the conclusions reached is that the strength of the fiscal repercussion was more important, more significant, and stronger than the real impact of the initiatives of the Central Bank of Iraq. Similarly, it was concluded that Baghdad was the first governorate that benefited from the effects of the initiative.