Trade openness and real effective exchange rate volatility: The case of Vietnam

Abstract

2004–2020. The study was conducted in the context that Vietnam’s trade openness is increasing, causing significant challenges in macro management, including exchange rate management. The authors use vector autoregression model and Granger causality test to test this relationship. The study used a vector autoregression model and Granger causality test to investigate the causal relationship between trade openness and real effective exchange rate volatility in Vietnam over the period 2004–2020. The study was conducted in the context of Vietnam’s trade openness index rising, causing significant challenges in macro management, including exchange rate management. The study takes a new approach (i) using Vietnam’s real effective exchange rate relative to 143 trading partners; and (ii) examining the impact of economic growth on trade openness and exchange rate volatility. The research results indicate that trade openness has a two-way Granger causality with effective real exchange rate volatility in Vietnam at the 1% significance level. Specifically, the effect of trade openness on real exchange rate volatility is positive at a 1-period lag and 4-period lag. Meanwhile, real exchange rate fluctuations have a negative effect on trade openness with a 1-period lag. At the same time, the study also finds that increased economic growth reduces real effective exchange rate volatility and increases Vietnam’s trade openness. On that basis, the study proposes implications for the management of trade openness and exchange rate management in the current Vietnamese context.