Impact of macroeconomic factors and interaction with institutional performance on Vietnamese bank share prices

Abstract

Shares of listed banks in Vietnam gain a lot of interest from investors and regulators. It is important to study the primary drivers of the banks’ share prices. In this context, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gold Price (GP), Ninety-day Interbank Interest Rate (R), and USD/VND Exchange Rate (FX) are selected as representatives for macroeconomic variables. A new contribution of this study is the application of interactive factors between macroeconomics and bank performance (i.e., Equity Capital (E), Deposit Аmounts (D), Loan Amounts (L), Non-performing Loans (NPLs), Leverage (LEV), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Return on Assets (ROA), and Stock Beta (Beta)) in evaluating their impact on bank share prices. Applying the econometric method of Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) and the quarterly financial data of 13 listed banks from Q1/2009 to Q3/2020, the regression results show that GDP improvements can foster an increase in bank share prices, and this impact is strengthened if banks have good performance of ROA, CAR, and with strict control of NPLs. The R also has a positive impact on bank share prices, and the price level increases if NPLs, LEV, and Beta are controlled at optimal levels. However, empirical evidence drawn from the study also suggests that an increase in FX and GP is not a significant contributor to bank share prices, especially if the bank does not manage NPLs and LEV. Moreover, the impact of E, D, and L on the movements of bank share prices is not significant.