Development of Simulation Model to Improve Bus Service Reliability at High-Frequency Operation

Abstract

The quality of service provided to passengers in high-frequency bus routes can be affected by variety of factors. According to this fact that high-frequency bus routes have high passenger demand and short headways (less than 10 minutes), interaction between buses would be much higher, causing decline in reliability of service. In order to represent a busy bus operation in Kuala Lumpur city centre network, a simulation model will be calibrated. The calibration and validation parameters for the key bus route will derive from data captured by the Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) system and procedures will be outlined to adapt the model to other bus routes. The study is in its initial stage to find out what factors have highest impact on reliability of high-frequency bus services in the city centre. An initial model was developed for forecasting passenger demand by using RSM. The simulation model will first be used to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the factors influencing reliability, such as passenger demand, terminal departure behaviour, and unfilled trips. Next, several operating strategies, including terminal departure and time-point holding will be modelled and evaluated for their potential to improve reliability. Model results show that which strategies and factors can significantly improve bus service reliability.