Asylum Flows in the EU Context: Lessons from Gravity

Abstract

The present paper aims to identify the impact of geographical, institutional, and sociopolitical factors as regards the magnitude and the direction of asylum seekers in the European Union between 2000 and 2018. The approach is based on the application of gravity model using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimators. The analysis incorporates a set of institutional variables, in order to assess the impact of the gradual EU enlargement process as well as the differentiated policies on granting asylum among the EU members. The strong presence of refugees in destination countries can be interpreted as an indication of various favorable conditions for granting asylum to persons of the same nationality. The results suggest that the role of migration networks tends to substitute the lack of an integrated EU immigration policy. Finally, either in geographical or institutional terms, E.U. appears as a non-homogeneous space for asylum seekers.