Can we develop a more targeted approach to mitigating seismic risk?

Abstract

AbstractThe recent high death tolls caused by large earthquakes are a further indication that earthquakes remain one of the most destructive natural hazards in the world and can seriously threaten the achievement of disaster reduction goals. To effectively reduce the existing seismic risk, the limited available mitigation resources should be allocated to areas with the most severe potential risk. However, identifying localized concentrations of risk requires detailed studies. Here, we propose a strategy to delineate regional high seismic risk zone at a fine resolution and with high confidence. We demonstrate this strategy by using the seismic hazard and loss estimation results for earthquake scenarios with a magnitude of Mw 7.5 for the Jiaocheng fault of the Shanxi Rift System, China. Our analyses reveal that the delineated zone accounts for only ~7% of the regional land area but for ~85% of the total financial loss. We recommend prioritizing seismic risk mitigation measures in such high-risk zones, especially for densely populated cities in seismically active areas, to better meet the disaster risk reduction targets in the Sendai Framework.