Abstract
AbstractGroundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.
Funder
U.S. Department of Energy
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference87 articles.
1. Jacobs, J. Sustainability of water resources in the Colorado River basin. The Bridge on Sustainable Water Resources. 41, 6–12 (2011).
2. James, T., Evans, A., Madly, E. & Kelly, C. The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region (W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, 2014); https://businessforwater.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/PTF-Final-121814.pdf
3. Udall, B. & Overpeck, J. The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future. Water Resour. Res. 53, 2404–2418 (2017).
4. Williams, A. P., Cook, B. I. & Smerdon, J. E. Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 232–234 (2022).
5. Wheeler, K. G. et al. What will it take to stabilize require difficult decisions to prevent further decline. Science 377, 373–376 (2022).
Cited by
3 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献