Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather

Author:

Jones Andrew D.ORCID,Rastogi Deeksha,Vahmani PouyaORCID,Stansfield Alyssa M.,Reed Kevin A.ORCID,Thurber TravisORCID,Ullrich Paul A.,Rice Jennie S.ORCID

Abstract

AbstractRegional climate models can be used to examine how past weather events might unfold under different climate conditions by simulating analogue versions of those events with modified thermodynamic conditions (i.e., warming signals). Here, we apply this approach by dynamically downscaling a 40-year sequence of past weather from 1980–2019 driven by atmospheric re-analysis, and then repeating this 40-year sequence a total of 8 times using a range of time-evolving thermodynamic warming signals that follow 4 80-year future warming trajectories from 2020–2099. Warming signals follow two emission scenarios (SSP585 and SSP245) and are derived from two groups of global climate models based on whether they exhibit relatively high or low climate sensitivity. The resulting dataset, which contains 25 hourly and over 200 3-hourly variables at 12 km spatial resolution, can be used to examine a plausible range of future climate conditions in direct reference to previously observed weather and enables a systematic exploration of the ways in which thermodynamic change influences the characteristics of historical extreme events.

Funder

DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Library and Information Sciences,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,Computer Science Applications,Education,Information Systems,Statistics and Probability

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