Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data

Author:

Sherrard-Smith EllieORCID,Ngufor CorineORCID,Sanou AntoineORCID,Guelbeogo Moussa W.,N’Guessan Raphael,Elobolobo Eldo,Saute Francisco,Varela Kenyssony,Chaccour Carlos J.ORCID,Zulliger Rose,Wagman JosephORCID,Robertson Molly L.,Rowland Mark,Donnelly Martin J.ORCID,Gonahasa Samuel,Staedke Sarah G.,Kolaczinski Jan,Churcher Thomas S.ORCID

Abstract

AbstractThe cause of malaria transmission has been known for over a century but it is still unclear whether entomological measures are sufficiently reliable to inform policy decisions in human health. Decision-making on the effectiveness of new insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) have been based on epidemiological data, typically collected in cluster-randomised control trials. The number of these trials that can be conducted is limited. Here we use a systematic review to highlight that efficacy estimates of the same intervention may vary substantially between trials. Analyses indicate that mosquito data collected in experimental hut trials can be used to parameterize mechanistic models for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and reliably predict the epidemiological efficacy of quick-acting, neuro-acting ITNs and IRS. Results suggest that for certain types of ITNs and IRS using this framework instead of clinical endpoints could support policy and expedite the widespread use of novel technologies.

Funder

RCUK | Medical Research Council

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary

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