Exposure to air pollution and scarlet fever resurgence in China: a six-year surveillance study

Abstract

AbstractScarlet fever has resurged in China starting in 2011, and the environment is one of the potential reasons. Nationwide data on 655,039 scarlet fever cases and six air pollutants were retrieved. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models and a meta-regression model. We show that the average incidence in 2011–2018 was twice that in 2004–2010 [RR = 2.30 (4.40 vs. 1.91), 95% CI: 2.29–2.31; p < 0.001] and generally lower in the summer and winter holiday (p = 0.005). A low to moderate correlation was seen between scarlet fever and monthly NO2 (r = 0.21) and O3 (r = 0.11). A 10 μg/m3 increase of NO2 and O3 was significantly associated with scarlet fever, with a cumulative RR of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02–1.10) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01–1.07), respectively, at a lag of 0 to 15 months. In conclusion, long-term exposure to ambient NO2 and O3 may be associated with an increased risk of scarlet fever incidence, but direct causality is not established.