Abstract
AbstractThe economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile.
Funder
Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
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