Abstract
AbstractWith the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.
Funder
World Health Organization
Imperial College London
RCUK | Medical Research Council
Wellcome Trust
DH | National Institute for Health Research
Schmidt Science Fellow (Oliver Watson) Community Jameel (philanthropic funding to Neil Ferguson and Patrick Doohan) Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
Reference40 articles.
1. Watson, O. J. et al. Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect. Dis. 22, 1293–1302 (2022).
2. Schneider, E. C. et al. The U. S. COVID-19 vaccination program at one year: how many deaths and hospitalizations were averted? Commonwealth Fund. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/dec/us-covid-19-vaccination-program-one-year-how-many-deaths-and (2021).
3. Meslé, M. M. I. et al. Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021. Eurosurveillance 26, 2101021 (2021).
4. Lopez Bernal, J. et al. Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. N. Engl. J. Med. 385, 585–594 (2021).
5. Singanayagam, A. et al. Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study. Lancet Infect. Dis. 22, 183–195 (2022).
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献