Addressing mechanism bias in model-based impact forecasts of new tuberculosis vaccines

Author:

Tovar M.ORCID,Moreno Y.ORCID,Sanz J.ORCID

Abstract

AbstractIn tuberculosis (TB) vaccine development, multiple factors hinder the design and interpretation of the clinical trials used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The complex transmission chain of TB includes multiple routes to disease, making it hard to link the vaccine efficacy observed in a trial to specific protective mechanisms. Here, we present a Bayesian framework to evaluate the compatibility of different vaccine descriptions with clinical trial outcomes, unlocking impact forecasting from vaccines whose specific mechanisms of action are unknown. Applying our method to the analysis of the M72/AS01E vaccine trial -conducted on IGRA+ individuals- as a case study, we found that most plausible models for this vaccine needed to include protection against, at least, two over the three possible routes to active TB classically considered in the literature: namely, primary TB, latent TB reactivation and TB upon re-infection. Gathering new data regarding the impact of TB vaccines in various epidemiological settings would be instrumental to improve our model estimates of the underlying mechanisms.

Funder

Gobierno de Aragón

Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Agencia Estatal de Investigación

Banco Santander

Soremartec S.A. and Soremartec Italia, Ferrero Group.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary

Reference37 articles.

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