Hybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon

Abstract

AbstractTraditional fully-deterministic algorithms, which rely on physical equations and mathematical models, are the backbone of many scientific disciplines for decades. These algorithms are based on well-established principles and laws of physics, enabling a systematic and predictable approach to problem-solving. On the other hand, AI-based strategies emerge as a powerful tool for handling vast amounts of data and extracting patterns and relationships that might be challenging to identify through traditional algorithms. Here, we bridge these two realms by using AI to find an optimal mapping of meteorological features predicted two days ahead by the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) into lightning flash occurrence. The prediction capability of the resulting AI-enhanced algorithm turns out to be significantly higher than that of the fully-deterministic algorithm employed in the ECMWF model. A remarkable Recall peak of about 95% within the 0-24 h forecast interval is obtained. This performance surpasses the 85% achieved by the ECMWF model at the same Precision of the AI algorithm.