Abstract
AbstractA critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9–22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
Reference56 articles.
1. Bebbington, M. S. & Jenkins, S. F. Intra-eruption forecasting. Bull. Volcanol. 81, 1–17 (2019).
2. Sparks, R. S. J. & Cashman, K. V. Dynamic magma systems: implications for forecasting volcanic activity. Elements 13, 35–40 (2017).
3. Cassidy, M., Manga, M., Cashman, K. & Bachmann, O. Controls on explosive-effusive volcanic eruption styles. Nat. Commun. 9, 1–16 (2018).
4. Barclay, J. et al. Livelihoods, wellbeing and the risk to life during volcanic eruptions. Front. Earth Sci. 7 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00205 (2019).
5. Colwell, R. & Machlis, G. Science during crisis: best practices, research needs, and policy priorities. Am. Acad. Arts Sci. 1-32 (Cambridge, MA, 2019).
Cited by
31 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献