Part II model support on a new mechanism for North Pacific Oscillation influence on ENSO

Abstract

AbstractOwing to the significant influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global climate, how ENSO events are initiated is an intriguing issue. The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a primary atmospheric variability over the midlatitude, is a well-known trigger for ENSO events, but the physical linkage is not yet fully understood. Based on observational analyses, in Part I, we proposed a new mechanism that the NPO-related wave activity flux (WAF) could directly induce the equatorial wind anomalies in both upper and lower levels. In this study, we substantiate the impacts of the WAF on tropical circulations using climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6). We found that the intensity of the southward WAF over the central Pacific is a paramount factor resulting in intermodel diversity in simulating the NPO–ENSO linkage. By classifying the models into two groups of strong and weak meridional WAF (MWAF), we reveal that the strong MWAF models simulate stronger upper- and lower-level equatorial winds and precipitation anomalies that facilitate the ENSO in subsequent winter. We also reveal that the magnitude of the MWAF is closely related to the model’s climatological meridional wind and meridional shear of climatological zonal wind, emphasizing the role of systematic bias on the ENSO simulation. A comparison of the MWAF impact and seasonal footprinting mechanism demonstrates the dominant influence of the MWAF in determining the diversity of NPO–ENSO relationships.