Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts

Abstract

AbstractThe term “weather whiplash” describes abrupt transitions from one persistent weather regime to another substantially different one, such as from a frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth. Weather whiplash events (WWEs) are often highly disruptive to agriculture, ecosystems, infrastructure, and human activities. While no consistent definition exists, we identify WWEs based on substantial shifts in the continental-scale, upper-atmosphere circulation. As first demonstrated in our earlier study focused on the NE Pacific/North American region, a WWE is detected when one persistent, large-scale pattern in 500 hPa height anomalies shifts to another distinctly different one. Patterns are identified using self-organizing maps (SOMs), which create a matrix of representative patterns in the data. In the present study, we apply this approach to identify WWEs in the North Atlantic/European sector. We analyze the occurrence of WWEs originating with long-duration events (four or more days) in each pattern. A WWE is detected when the pattern two days following a long-duration event is substantially different, measured with distance thresholds internal to the matrix. Changes in WWE frequency, past and future, are assessed objectively based on reanalysis output and climate model simulations. We find that future changes under RCP 8.5 forcing exhibit distinct trends, especially in summer months, while those based on reanalysis are less clear. Patterns featuring positive height anomalies in high latitudes are projected to produce more WWEs in the future, while patterns exhibiting negative anomalies produce fewer. Shifts in temperature and precipitation extremes associated with these WWEs are diagnosed.