Likelihood of unprecedented drought and fire weather during Australia’s 2019 megafires

Author:

Squire Dougal T.ORCID,Richardson DougORCID,Risbey James S.ORCID,Black Amanda S.ORCID,Kitsios VassiliORCID,Matear Richard J.ORCID,Monselesan DidierORCID,Moore Thomas S.ORCID,Tozer Carly R.ORCID

Abstract

AbstractBetween June 2019 and March 2020, thousands of wildfires spread devastation across Australia at the tragic cost of many lives, vast areas of burnt forest, and estimated economic losses upward of AU$100 billion. Exceptionally hot and dry weather conditions, and preceding years of severe drought across Australia, contributed to the severity of the wildfires. Here we present analysis of a very large ensemble of initialized climate simulations to assess the likelihood of the concurrent drought and fire-weather conditions experienced at that time. We focus on a large region in southeast Australia where these fires were most widespread and define two indices to quantify the susceptibility to fire from drought and fire weather. Both indices were unprecedented in the observed record in 2019. We find that the likelihood of experiencing such extreme susceptibility to fire in the current climate was 0.5%, equivalent to a 200 year return period. The conditional probability is many times higher than this when we account for the states of key climate modes that impact Australian weather and climate. Drought and fire-weather conditions more extreme than those experienced in 2019 are also possible in the current climate.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change

Reference94 articles.

1. The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements: Report. Technical Report (The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, 2020). https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/royal-commission-national-natural-disaster-arrangements-report.

2. Boer, M. M., Resco de Dios, V. & Bradstock, R. A. Unprecedented burn area of Australian mega forest fires. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 171–172 (2020).

3. Hughes, L. et al. Summer of Crisis. Technical Report (The Climate Council of Australia, 2020). https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/summer-of-crisis/.

4. Davey, S. M. & Sarre, A. Editorial: the 2019/20 Black Summer bushfires. Aust. For. 83, 47–51 (2020).

5. Borchers Arriagada, N. et al. Unprecedented smoke-related health burden associated with the 2019–20 bushfires in eastern Australia. Med. J. Aust. 213, 282–283 (2020).

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3