Abstract
AbstractThe global health burden from wildfire smoke is expected to worsen under climate change, yet we lack quantitative estimates of the economic costs of increased mortality and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions. Using a quantitative wildfire risk assessment framework and a 12-member climate model ensemble, we find a median increase in wildfire smoke health costs of 1–16% by 2070 across diverse landscapes in south-eastern Australia. Ensemble maximum cost increases (5–38%) often exceed abatements from fuel treatment, while costs decline moderately (0–7%) for the ensemble minimum. Unmitigated climate change will increase the health burden of wildfire smoke and undermine prescribed burning effectiveness.
Funder
New South Wales Government’s Department of Planning and Environment via the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Atmospheric Science,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change
Cited by
3 articles.
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