Seasonal predictability of baroclinic wave activity

Author:

Zhang GanORCID,Murakami Hiroyuki,Cooke William F.ORCID,Wang Zhuo,Jia Liwei,Lu FeiyuORCID,Yang XiaosongORCID,Delworth Thomas L.ORCID,Wittenberg Andrew T.ORCID,Harrison Matthew J.,Bushuk Mitchell,McHugh Colleen,Johnson Nathaniel C.,Kapnick Sarah B.,Tseng Kai-Chih,Zhang LipingORCID

Abstract

AbstractMidlatitude baroclinic waves drive extratropical weather and climate variations, but their predictability beyond 2 weeks has been deemed low. Here we analyze a large ensemble of climate simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and demonstrate that seasonal variations of baroclinic wave activity (BWA) are potentially predictable. This potential seasonal predictability is denoted by robust BWA responses to SST forcings. To probe regional sources of the potential predictability, a regression analysis is applied to the SST-forced large ensemble simulations. By filtering out variability internal to the atmosphere and land, this analysis identifies both well-known and unfamiliar BWA responses to SST forcings across latitudes. Finally, we confirm the model-indicated predictability by showing that an operational seasonal prediction system can leverage some of the identified SST-BWA relationships to achieve skillful predictions of BWA. Our findings help to extend long-range predictions of the statistics of extratropical weather events and their impacts.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change

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