Abstract
AbstractRecent hurricane losses in the New York Metropolitan area demonstrate its vulnerability to flood hazards. Long-term development and planning require predictions of low-probability high-consequence storm surge levels that account for climate change impacts. This requires simulating thousands of synthetic storms under a specific climate change scenario which requires high computational power. To alleviate this burden, we developed a machine learning-based predictive model. The training data set was generated using a high-fidelity hydrodynamic model including the effect of wind-generated waves. The machine learning model is then used to predict and compare storm surges over historical (1980–2000) and future (2080–2100) periods, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Our analysis encompassed 57 locations along the New York and New Jersey coastlines. The results show an increase along the southern coastline of New Jersey and inside Jamaica, Raritan, and Sandy Hook bays, while a decrease along the Long Island coastline and inland bays.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Atmospheric Science,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change
Reference49 articles.
1. Colle, B. A. et al. New York city’s vulnerability to coastal flooding: storm surge modeling of past cyclones. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 829–842 (2008).
2. Avila, L. A. & Cangialosi, J. Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Irene (al092011) (National Hurricane Center, 2011).
3. Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C. & Jevrejeva, S. Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 19601–19605 (2012).
4. Blake, E.S. et al. Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Sandy (al182012) (National Hurricane Center, 2013).
5. Latto, A., Hagen, A. & Berg, R. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Isaias (al092020) (National Hurricane Center, 2021).
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献