Convective modes reveal the incoherence of the Southern Polar Vortex

Abstract

AbstractThe Southern Polar Vortex (SPV) is prominent over Antarctica in the Austral winter, and typically associated with a region of low temperature, low ozone concentration, negative potential vorticity, and polar stratospheric clouds. Seasonal and unexpected changes in the SPV have a profound influence on global weather. A methodology which identifies the SPV’s coherence and breakup using only wind and pressure data is developed and validated against temperature, ozone and potential vorticity data. The process identifies “convective modes”, each with an assigned “coherence” value, which form building blocks for the observed spatial variation of the SPV. Analysis and interpretation are presented for 4 years with quite different known behavior of the SPV: 1999 (a relatively standard year), 2002 (when the SPV split into two), 2019 (an atmospheric warming year which led to an early dissipation in the SPV), and the most recent year 2022 (which was influenced by submarine volcano eruptions and a prolonged La Niña event). In decomposing convective effects into modes with quantifiable coherence, this study solidifies connections between wind velocities and atmospheric variables while providing new tools to study the evolution of coherent structures and signal the occurrence of atypical geophysical events.