Author:
Paoa Noah,Fletcher Charles H.,Anderson Tiffany R.,Coffman Makena,Habel Shellie
Abstract
AbstractProjecting sea level rise (SLR) impacts requires defining ocean surface variability as a source of uncertainty. We analyze ocean surface height data from a Regional Ocean Modeling System reanalysis to produce an ocean reference surface (ORS) as a proxy for the local mean higher high water. This method allows incorporation of ocean surface level uncertainty into bathtub modeling and generation of probability-based projections of SLR-induced flooding. For demonstration, we model the NOAA Intermediate, Intermediate-high and High regional SLR scenarios at three locations on the island of Oʻahu, Hawai’i. We compare 80% probability-based flood projections generated using our approach to those generated using the Tidal Constituents and Residual Interpolation (TCARI) method. TCARI is the predecessor of VDatum, the standard method used by NOAA available only for the continental U.S., Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. For validation, ORS pixel values representing the Honolulu tide gauge location are compared to tide gauge observations. The more realistic distribution of daily higher high water provided by ORS improves projections of SLR-induced flooding for locations where VDatum is not available. We highlight the importance of uncertainty and user-defined probability in identifying locations of flooding and pathways for additional sources of flooding.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference57 articles.
1. Nerem, R. S. et al. Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 115, 2022–2025 (2018).
2. Dangendorf, S. et al. Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 705–710 (2019).
3. IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2021).
4. Weber, M. E., Golledge, N. R., Fogwill, C. J., Turney, C. S. M. & Thomas, Z. A. Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation. Nat. Commun. 12, 6683 (2021).
5. Siegert, M., Alley, R. B., Rignot, E., Englander, J. & Corell, R. Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures. One Earth 3, 691–703 (2020).
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献