Periodicity, Elliott waves, and fractals in the NFT market

Abstract

AbstractNon-fungible tokens (NFTs) are unique digital assets that exist on a blockchain and have provided new revenue streams for creators. This research investigates NFT market inefficiencies to identify claimed cyclic behavior and cryptocurrency influences on NFT prices. The research found that while linear models are not useful in modeling NFT price series, models that extract periodic behavior can provide explanations and predictions of price behavior. The investigation of autocycles in cryptocurrency and NFT markets did not support the existence of Elliott Wave behavior in any of these blockchain enabled assets. Rather NFT price behavior is strongly tied to the underlying asset and its community of fans. These fans commit to periodic bouts of idiosyncratic trading which cools for a while, and then restarts. The research found no evidence supporting whole market effects across the full price series of individual NFTs. The research strongly supports prior findings that the offsetting movements significantly influence NFT prices and trading volume in Bitcoin and Ether. The research found NFT markets exhibit characteristics resembling a social media platform rather than more traditional asset markets like stock exchanges. It found that traditional linear econometric models cannot predict or explain NFT price series, only that NFT price and volume were weakly correlated. Fractal models consistent with Elliott wave theory do explain some of NFT price behavior, but are not consistent or stable over time. This research confirmed prior research findings that Bitcoin and Ether price movements are correlated with general NFT price and volume series in periods of between 24 and 48 h, with significant numbers of trades into and out of cryptocurrencies at 2 and 8 h.